The events on the political and economic stage in Romania, especially in the last year, have shown us that macroeconomic indicators can undergo changes and capital flows are influenced by what happens in a country's economy.
Today we take a look at coins, currency pairs, and the key factors influencing the exchange rate in Romania.
As you well know, currency is a means of payment officially recognized in a country, used for commercial and financial transactions, and exchange rate este prețul unei monede exprimat în altă monedă. Locul în care are loc schimbul dintre monede se numește foreign exchange market.
How does appreciation versus depreciation of a currency work?
The appreciation of the leu: means that the leu is worth more compared to the euro or dollar.
The depreciation of the leu are the opposite effect, meaning the euro or the dollar will become stronger than the leu.
These fluctuations can influence (directly and indirectly) your expense size in Romania or your behavior regarding purchases.
Why does the exchange rate move?
Forex (Foreign Exchange Market), the largest financial market in the world where currencies are traded, records daily transactions of more than 7 trillion dollars. These daily transactions are influenced by a combination of factors, which will determine a certain exchange rate. In the case of Romania, they would work as follows:
- Reference interest rate: if it is raised, theoretically, it attracts investments in Romania in the local currency and thus strengthens the leu, if it is lowered, the leu can depreciate.
- Inflation – if it is low, the leu can appreciate.
- Current account deficit – a large deficit can lead to the depreciation of the leu.
- State of the economy – If the economy is solid, growing, this attracts foreign investors, which can lead to the appreciation of the local currency.
- Fiscal and monetary policies – The decisions of the government and the National Bank of Romania (BNR) can influence the perception and behavior of investors. If foreign investors' money enters the country, the leu appreciates and becomes stronger.
- Speculations – The expectations and behavior of investors can cause sudden movements. For example, the Swiss franc crisis of 2015.
What is happening now in Romania with the leu?
Romania has a controlled flotation regime, which means that the NBR occasionally intervenes to stabilize the exchange rate. The leu (RON) is mainly traded against the euro (EUR/RON) and the dollar (USD/RON).
In the last three and a half years, the EUR/RON exchange rate has been stable, around 4.95 RON/EUR – a sign of confidence due to the economy, BNR interventions, prudent fiscal policies and EU funds.
Nevertheless, in recent months, the exchange rate of the Romanian leu (RON) has recorded greater volatility than we are used to, influenced by internal political and economic factors:
- Significant increase: On May 7, 2025, the official NBR exchange rate reached a new record of 5.0991 lei/euro, surpassing the psychological threshold of 5 lei for the first time.
- Post-electoral depreciation: After the first round of the presidential elections, the leu reached 5.1222 RON/EUR, a depreciation of approximately 2%.
- Interventions by BNR: The National Bank of Romania intervened significantly on the foreign exchange market to stabilize the leu, with nearly 6.8 billion euros in this regard.
Exchange rates from the region
Evolution 2022 - 2025
- The Lion (RON) is a regional exception through stability, with a slight depreciation at the end of the period. Compared to other currencies in the region, it has very low volatility.
- Czech crown (CZK) was resistant and stable, due to the solid economy, and the political and fiscal stability in the Czech Republic.
- Hungarian Forint (HUF) was the most volatile and vulnerable. It is strongly affected by political instability, poor monetary policies, and the political conflict of Hungary with the EU.
- Polish zloty (PLN) had a relatively good performance, with moderate volatility. Poland is supported by good economic fundamentals, relatively prudent fiscal policies, and solid and sustainable economic growth.
What does stable leu mean?
- Less risky transition: a more stable leu means predictability for those who send money to Romania or invest.
- Balanced monetary policy: with the reference interest rate at 6.5% (higher than the inflation of 5.7%), the NBR tempers inflationary pressures.
- Easier planning: inflation is kept in check, and a predictable exchange rate means you can focus on what is important to you if you are thinking about returning to Romania. Whether it is about purchasing a home or finding a job, you do not have to worry about sudden changes in exchange rates.
- Macroeconomic stability: BNR intervenes when needed, so as to correct imbalances or high volatility.
A stable exchange rate is not a coincidence, but the result of a well-calibrated strategy. In a financial world with volatile currencies and unpredictable decisions, the leu remains one of the most "well-behaved" currencies in the region.
If you plan to return to Romania, this could be an opportune moment: the leu is relatively stable, the National Bank of Romania acts for balance, and Romania has a mix of predictability and long-term growth potential. However, we still need to monitor together the measure packages that will be implemented for Romania's economic recovery.
